Treasury debt: wholesale bonds — maturity profile and simulator beta

Full fixed-coupon wholesale register: OK + PS + DS + WS incl. non-fixing series (PS1026, PS1031, WS0437, WS0447), coupons from actual schedules, new issuance priced at forward par yields off the LW-NSS curve. Deterministic expectations-hypothesis baseline, quarterly step (charts quarterly, table annual). Curve as of .

Stock today

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PLN bn, wavg coupon

Stock 2036

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PLN bn

Cash interest 2027

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PLN bn/yr

Cash interest 2036

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PLN bn/yr

Wavg coupon 2036

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ATM y

Snapshot date —

Redemption ladder, quarterly (principal + interest)

Quarterly cashflow detail

Which bond redeems and which pays its annual coupon, quarter by quarter, for the bonds outstanding at the snapshot date chosen on the slider above (monthly steps through the panel history since 2005, as on the curves tab; simulated future issues not shown). The ladder and this table move together. Register series without fixings enter from their exchange listing dates at listed nominal (WS0437 2007, WS0447 2017, PS1031 2026). Amounts in PLN bn.

Controls

Net need, bn/yr

Need growth %/yr

Curve shift, bp

Mix 2y %

Mix 5y %

Mix 10y %

Mix 20y %

Interest financing

Assumptions and sources: the net-need default of 164 bn/yr is the official 2027 plan for fixed-rate wholesale bonds: the budget justification (Uzasadnienie do projektu ustawy budżetowej na rok 2027, Chapter X) plans a positive sales-minus-redemptions balance of PLN 164.1 bn in fixed-rate market bonds (within 198.4 bn for all wholesale market bonds; floaters +29.4 bn and linkers +4.9 bn are outside this simulator's universe; 2026 expected: +181.7 bn fixed-rate). Holding it flat beyond 2027 is this tool's assumption. The curve is today's and static; shifting it moves only new-issue coupons. No switch auctions or buybacks. Fiscal closure: in the default mode the net-need path is held as configured, which implicitly assumes rising interest is absorbed by the primary budget (taxes or spending cuts). The debt-financed mode reads the configured number as the primary need and adds each quarter's coupon cash to issuance, so interest compounds into the stock (the snowball); the 2027 total stays anchored at the configured number under both. Issuance mix: the default 18/42/34/6 across 2y/5y/10y/20y is calibrated to ten years of observed gross issuance including reopenings (Sep 2016 to Sep 2026: OK 18.3%, PS 42.1%, DS 33.3%, WS 6.3% of PLN 1,421 bn), as seen through the fixing panel; issuance of non-fixing series (notably WS0437) is not captured, so the true long-tenor share may be somewhat higher. A what-if engine, not a forecast. Universe = the debt register (24 series, PLN 1,047 bn), not the pricing panel: outstanding for the four series without fixings comes from the panel history (PS1026) and GPW Catalyst listed nominals (PS1031 4.4 bn, WS0437 3.9 bn, WS0447 6.5 bn). Stocks are verified against the MinFin Zadlużenie Skarbu Państwa time series (OK+PS+DS+WS): end-2023 ours 602 vs MinFin 596, end-2024 711 vs 709, end-2025 899 vs 896, within about 1 pct, the small excess reflecting the constant-outstanding backfill of the non-fixing WS series (their listed nominals of 10.4 bn combined sit 0.7 bn above what MinFin's June 2026 WS aggregate implies).

Simulated debt stock and cash interest

Simulated redemption ladder, quarterly (principal + interest)

Counterpart of the historical ladder above, but walking FORWARD through the simulation: the slider picks a future point (from today to end-2036) and the bars show the remaining cashflows of the book outstanding at that point, existing bonds plus simulated issues already in the book. Reacts to the controls; y-scale fixed within a run to the largest position so the growth is visible. The watermark duration discounts with today's (shifted) curve, held static.

Simulation point —

Results: four years of history + simulation

Grey rows are realised history (2026 through the curve date, marked *), replicable via debt_sim_hist.py with a per-bond audit trail in debt_sim_hist_detail.csv: redemptions are each matured bond's last recorded outstanding, coupon cash uses actual outstanding at each payment date, and the register series (WS0437, WS0447, PS1031, PS1026) are included. Both views carry history: the quarterly view shows 15 realised quarters (2023Q1 through 2026Q3) with quarter-end stock snapshots. The blue row is an explicit 2026Q4 bridge quarter: PS1026 (25.8 bn, maturing Oct 2026, after the curve date) is redeemed and refinanced there, together with the Q4 coupons, at a sourced net need of 10.6 bn (MinFin's expected 2026 fixed-rate net of +181.7 bn minus the realised +171.1 bn through the curve date), so the 2027 row is directly comparable with the budget plan (gross fixed sales 236.6 bn). The CSV button exports history, bridge and simulation quarters together with a type column.

Source: author's own calculations. Bond universe and outstanding from the Treasury BondSpot Poland fixing panel; coupon schedules from actual bond terms; curve from the LW-NSS daily fit (Dec, M. (2026), Parsimonious Yield Curve Modeling in Less-Liquid Markets, FAME|GRAPE Working Paper #53); financing-needs from the Uzasadnienie do projektu ustawy budżetowej na rok 2027, Chapter X (Ministry of Finance, August 2026): 2027 planned net fixed-rate wholesale issuance PLN 164.1 bn, gross sales 236.6 bn.
yieldcartography.com · Marcin Dec